NAB Morning Call

Friday 13th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Data from CreditorWatch shows that almost one in ten hospitality businesses in Australia shut down in the 12 months to April. Whilst the growth in insolvencies has levelled off this year, it doesn’t mean the worst is over. Michael Fingland, CEO of Brisbane-based turnaround specialists Vantage Performance, fears that the cost of living is starting to bite for businesses reliant on discretionary spend. So, what should companies be doing when income is falling and costs are rising? Michael offers some sage advice and explains how turnaround specialists tackle the issue - even for companies that are trading insolvent. 

Friday 13th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABProducer prices in the US, just like CPI, seem to have had very little impact from tariffs so far. But jobless claims are rising.  NAB’s ray Attrill says the continuing claims are similar to recession levels. All the more reason for the Fed to cut rates - but not the 2% that President Trump is now looking for. Meanwhile the President has reminded everyone that he is serious about tariffs, with envelopes ready to send to trading partners with their own bespoke tariff. That helped push the US dollar down to a two-year low. Trade and tariffs will undoubtedly be talked about at the G7 summit that kicks off this weekend in Alberta, Canada.

Thursday 12th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTwo big bits of news overnight, First, a trade deal has been reached between the US and China, that secures supplies of China’s rare earths for the US, and allows China to import goods that had previously been blocked. But, as NAB’s Sally Auld says, it really is a statement on what was talked about in Geneva, and tariffs remain in place, at 55% on China’s exports. No surprise then, that equity markets are far from excited about it. More significant was the softer US CPI print in May. The impacts of tariffs are not making a big stamp on prices, yet, but again the market response was restrained, because its still too early to tell. PPI numbers later today might tell a different story.

Wednesday 11th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe UK has grabbed a bit of the focus overnight. All eyes are on the US-China trade talks in London. Equities have been helped by the positive sentiment coming from US trade secretary Howard Lutnick, although NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether the US Commerce Secretary has a tendency to talk things up. Some of the biggest market moves though, relate to the UK’s employment detail was softer than expected, with a sharp rise in unemployment claims. Phil and Rodrigo also talk about the NAB Business Survey yesterday and look ahead to US CPI today.

Tuesday 10th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets had been preparing for a softer jobs print in the US on Friday. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk about a result that was better than expected, but there are still plenty of signs of weakness. Perhaps not enough, though, to support President Trump’s call for a one percent rate cut to add rocket fuel to the economy. Today the focus is on trade talks between  the US and China in London. It comes as data over the weekend shows just how much trade form China to  the US fell last month.  Locally, focus with be on the NAB business survey and Westpac consumer confidence numbers, and later this week US CPI is the number to watch. 

Friday 6th June 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Should we be worried about the long-term effects of the Trump presidency? The OECD this week downgraded global growth forecasts because of the uncertainty brought about by his tariff regime. It’s also seeing investors diluting their exposure to US assets. But is this Sell-America trade offset by the TACO trade which assumes Trump will always chicken-out.This week Phil talks to the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the Trump-factor, particularly in relation to the dollar. Key requirements of a reserve currency are safety and stability - have we just lost both of those things?  In which case, could another currency take-over, or some sort of basket of currencies, like the IMF SDR? Martin argues the second choice for a reserve currency is a long way behind the US dollar. Also, despite his extraordinary behaviour, financial markets are behaving as though everything is relatively normal. Is the end result that the US President just expedites trends that were happening anyway, driving us to a more fragmented global financial system.

Thursday 5th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reacted to a softer than expected US Services ISM, which unexpectedly dipped into contraction territory (just). That’s on top of the JOLTs numbers this week that showed a rise in  unfilled vacancies, weaker manufacturing numbers earlier in the week, and the ADP jobs data overnight showing the lowest number of new hires since the pandemic. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the weaker yields in the US but not in Europe shows where the risks are as the US waits for payrolls on Friday. Phil and Gavin also discuss Australian GDP, the latest Bank of Canada meeting and today’s data releases, which includes the Caixin Services PMI.

Wednesday 4th June 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equity markets got off to a bad start when the OECD released a downgrade to its growth forecasts but NAB’s Skye Masters says there was a change in mood when the JOLTs data was released. An expected fall in job openings didn’t materialise. There was further good news in Europe, with inflation falling faster than expected, but that’s not going to have any impact on the ECB’s rate cut priced-in for this week. China’s Caixin PMI showed a slowdown in manufacturing in May, not reflected in the official numbers released at the weekend. This morning the ABS releases Australia’s Q2 GDP. Yesterday NAB revised down its pick from 0.5% to 0.2%, quite a bit below where the RBA and most of the market is sitting.